According to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN, The Washington Wizards are trading 23-year-old wing Deni Avdija to the Portland Trail Blazers for Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 overall pick (Bub Carrington), the second-most favorable of their three 2029 first-round picks (originally their own, Boston's and Milwaukee's) and two second-round picks.
There are several compelling factors underpin the Blazers' decision to pursue this trade:
Deni Avdija possesses exceptional skill as a 6 '9 wing.
Avdija recently signed a four-year contract worth $55 million and is widely considered to be one of the most team-friendly contracts in the NBA.
Avdija's remarkable performance in the previous season includes averaging 15 ppg, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists, with shooting percentages of 50% from the field, 37% from beyond the arc, and 74% from the free-throw line-at 23 years old.
Deni Avdija has established himself as a formidable defensive player and was recognized by finishing atop last year's Most Improved Player list.
Avdija's remarkable achievements are further amplified by his height of 6'9" and the potential for further development in his game.
Regarding the financial aspect, Avdija signed a four-year, $55 million rookie extension last summer, with the new deal already taken effect. This team-friendly contract features a descending structure for the final two years, aligning with the projected Mid-Level Exceptions for those years. This arrangement significantly benefits the Blazers and allows them to maintain financial flexibility in the future.
According to Bobby Marks of ESPN, Avdija’s contract is structured in a descending way. He will make $15.6 million next season, and his annual salary will drop to $11.8 million in the 2027-28 season. At that point, his salary will amount to only 7% of the estimated salary cap. For a player who is projected to be at least a rotation-level player, that is going to be an excellent-value contract.
Deni Avdija perfectly aligns with the type of player Blazers fans have long desired: a high-potential wing with great length, capable of contributing on both ends of the court, functioning as a secondary playmaker, and proficient in three-point shooting.
Any reservations regarding surrendering the 14th pick in the draft or the lesser value of a pick in five years, or even the inclusion of Malcolm Brogdon are understandable. However, personally, I find no concerns with any aspect of this deal. The Blazers have secured a superior player on a lengthy contract, which may arguably be the most valuable non-rookie scale contract in the entire league.
While serving as a mentor to Portland's young group and contributing on the court, Brogdon was always expected to be moved. The 14th pick was utilized by the Wizards to select guard Carlton "Bub" Carrington, who has been exceptional during the NBA Summer League. The significance of the two second-round picks became evident when the Blazers acquired an additional three second-round picks in exchange for the 34th pick on the second day of the draft.
Arguably-depending on much you like Bub Carrington, the most contentious piece of the trade was the second most favorable of the Blazers' three 2029 first-round picks. To assess their value, let us project where these picks—coming from the Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and the Blazers' own—might land.
By 2029, the Blazers will have fulfilled their first-round pick obligation to the Chicago Bulls. If all goes according to plan, Portland will have returned to the NBA Playoffs, resulting in their pick falling outside the lottery.
In Boston, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will still be in their early 30s. Assuming they remain healthy and with the Celtics, it is reasonable to expect the Boston pick to remain relatively low.
The Milwaukee pick is the most intriguing of the three. By 2029, Damian Lillard will be nearly 39, Khris Middleton will be nearly 38, and Brook Lopez will be 41. It is doubtful that any of them will still be in the league, let alone playing for the Bucks franchise. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be 34 and likely still impactful, but the Bucks have already relinquished almost all of their draft capital, making it challenging to rebuild around him.
If I were to make a prediction, I would bet that the Milwaukee pick will be the highest among the three and most likely remain with the Blazers.
The Wizards will receive either the Blazers' or Celtics' pick, which is acceptable if both teams are considered playoff contenders.
Throughout the course of the season with the Washington Wizards, Deni Avdija demonstrated consistent improvement, assuming greater offensive responsibility and solidifying his role as a significant contributor to the team's future- now instead with the Trail Blazers.
Avdija's progression this season showcased noticeable improvement, marking the first time his performance exceeded the league average according to
Player Production Average (PPA). PPA serves as a comprehensive metric that evaluates a player's overall production, accounting for factors that contribute to team success while penalizing actions that hinder it. This pace-neutral metric considers defense, role, and proficiency, with 100 representing an average performance, higher values indicating superior play, and 45 representing a replacement-level performance.
Avdija's PPA scores by season are as follows:
2020-21: 48
2021-22: 69
2022-23: 76
2023-24: 111
Undoubtedly, this season showcased Avdija's most impressive shooting performance to date. He achieved a remarkable 56.0% effective field goal percentage, connected on 37.4% of his three-point attempts, and displayed a 73.7% success rate on shots near the rim.
One notable transformation was Avdija's increased willingness to drive to the basket off the dribble. An astounding 33.6% of his field goal attempts occurred within three feet of the basket, where he achieved a career-best conversion rate of 73.7%. It is worth clarifying that the perception of Avdija as a subpar finisher only held true in his second season when he converted just 63.3% of his close-range attempts. In each of his other three seasons, his finishing ability improved significantly, surpassing the league average and consistently exceeding a 70% conversion rate.
The statistical evidence supports the increased frequency of Avdija's drives. Although he experienced a dip in three-point attempts, averaging a career-low 4.9 per 100 team possessions, he compensated with a surge in drives. According to NBA tracking data, Avdija drove to the basket 13.9 times per 48 minutes this season. A closer look at his per 48-minute drives throughout his career reveals the following progression:
2020-21: 3.2
2021-22: 7.7
2022-23: 8.7
2023-24: 13.9
During his first two seasons, limiting Avdija's driving attempts was a sensible decision due to his struggles in scoring (shooting below 50% on drives), infrequent trips to the free throw line, limited playmaking for teammates, and turnover issues. In fact, his assist-to-turnover ratio was consistently below one during those initial seasons, indicating a higher number of turnovers than assists.
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However, Avdija's third season, 2022-23, marked a turning point. He showcased improvement in converting drives into points, witnessed an uptick in assists, and demonstrated a decrease in turnovers. Although his assist-to-turnover ratio remained moderate (1.35), the overall progress was evident.
This season, Avdija maintained his effectiveness in driving to the basket, albeit with minor declines in certain categories, while significantly increasing his volume. For instance, he shot an impressive 54.5% on field goal attempts resulting from drives, slightly lower than the previous season's mark of 56.0%. Notably, he successfully converted points on 57.7% of his drives compared to 62.8% the previous year, resulting in a slight decline in points per drive from 0.63 to 0.58. Additionally, his free throw rate decreased, while his assist-to-turnover ratio remained nearly identical (1.38 this year compared to 1.35 last year). In terms of assists and turnovers, the rates were also remarkably similar.
One notable area of improvement was Avdija's free throw shooting. This season, he achieved a 77.3% success rate on free throws resulting from drives, a significant improvement from last year's 68.8%.
Given that the 2023-24 season marked the pinnacle of his career thus far, Avdija achieved career highs in several key categories, including points (23.0), assists (6.0), usage (20.4%), and offensive rating (114). While these numbers may slightly differ from Basketball-Reference tallies, it is unnecessary to delve into the reasons for these discrepancies.
Avdija's rebounding, blocks, steals, and other metrics remained relatively consistent compared to the previous season. However, his turnovers and assists increased, resulting in an ast/tov ratio below the league average.
This trade prompts the question of whether rebuilding teams should solely focus on acquiring draft compensation. Why not pursue a player at a position of need who aligns with the timeline of the young core if the opportunity arises? Someone who has already proven to be a valuable contributor due to their NBA experience.
Overall, the trade involving Deni Avdija joining the Portland Trail Blazers is a significant move for the team. Avdija brings a combination of youth, talent, and potential, making him an exciting addition to the Blazers' roster. While the trade requires the Blazers to part ways with assets like Malcolm Brogdon, draft picks, and potentially a future first-round pick, the value Avdija brings to the team makes it a worthwhile transaction. The Blazers are aiming to bolster their wing position and improve their overall roster, and Avdija's skills and potential align well with their goals.
