Head to Head: See conflicting views of the 2024 Blame Stakes (2024)

Ashley

Laurie

1. Frosted Departure (15-1)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Frosted Departure is riding a two-win streak courtesy of victories in a high-level optional claimer and the $200,000 Lake Ouachita Stakes. He didn't get off to a great start in 2024, finishing fourth in an optional claimer, beaten by 15 1/4 lengths, and 10th in the Razorback Handicap (G3), beaten by 17 1/4 lengths. In the colt's 23 starts, he has yet to attempt the Blame Stakes distance of 1 1/8 miles. At Churchill Downs, Frosted Departure is 5: 1-0-1. In terms of Equibase speed figures, the colt has the highest in the field with the 114 he earned in his final start of 2023 when he dominated an optional claimer by 7 1/4 lengths. In his most recent starts, he earned a 106 and a 105. Julien Leparoux has the return call for McPeek. Live long shot.

Frosted Departure moves up in class and outclassed allowance class foes by 9 1/4 lengths at Keeneland in April, hitting a career-best 102 Brisnet rating. He regressed in his next start and was rank while being asked to sit off the pace. Although the Ken McPeek trainee will contend with other speed types, Frosted Departure can get a comfy rail trip. Long shot for exotics.

2. Highland Falls (5-2)

Trained by Brad Cox, Highland Falls has only been off the board once in six career starts, and that was a fourth, beaten by just 2 3/4 lengths in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Subsanador and Reincarnate, who finished second and third, respectively, in the Big Cap, just backed up their performances with a fourth and a second in the Hollywood Gold Cup (G2). Highland Falls was most recently second to fan favorite Skippylongstocking in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2), earning a career-high 111 Equibase speed figure. While the colt has yet to win a stakes race of any kind, he has been giving a good accounting of himself. Plus, he already has asecond-place finish at this distance in a graded stakes race. Regular rider Florent Geroux will get the leg up on Saturday. Use underneath.

This well-bred 4-year-old son of Curlin out of Grade 1 heroine Round Pond may be coming into his own. He wasn't embarrassed on his first try against graded type in the Santa Anita Handicap when he shipped and stretched to 1 1/4 miles. Highland Falls closed steadily down the lane and missed third place by a head. In his last start, the Brad Cox trainee was a little closer to the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) pace, wasn't going to catch Skippylongstocking, but was a clear second. Highland Falls has improving Brisnet ratings and owns two triple-digit late-pace figures. To top it off, he owns a second-to-last bullet five-furlong breeze in 59.20 seconds. Contender.

3. War Campaign (9-2)

Trained by Philip Sims, War Campaign has been knocking on the graded stakes door in his last two starts. He began his 2024 campaign with a second-place finish in the Essex Handicap (G3), beaten by five lengths. He was most recently second in the Ben Ali Stakes (G3), beaten by 3 1/4 lengths. There's a couple things here that I really like about this 5-year-old. The first is that he's 6: 3-0-3 at Churchill Downs, and horse for course is one of my favorite angles to play. The other thing is that he's 6: 2-1-1 overall at the 1 1/8-mile distance. The negative, however, is that Sims has only had a starter in two graded races over the last five years, and War Campaign was the starter in question for both, making Sims winless in graded stakes over the time period, albeit with 100 percent in-the-money rate, per Race Lens. Tyler Gaffalione gets the return call for Sims, and I feel like this is a horse that you must use on your tickets. At the very least, use underneath.

War Campaign tries once again to earn that elusive graded victory. As Ashley noted, the Phil Sims trainee owns a pair of Grade 3 runner-up performances and has a good record for the course and distance. War Campaign is one-paced, and backs down in a fight. Unless he has a clear lead in the stretch, he doesn't win, but he's remarkably consistent in picking up a check. Plus, he's hit the board in all his Churchill starts. Exotics.

4. Uncle Jake (30-1)

Trained by Carlo Vaccarezza, Uncle Jake is riding a three-race win streak, all in allowance-optional claiming company. He posted a career-high 112 Equibase speed figure last out, taking a 1 1/8-mile high-level allowance race gate-to-wire and drawing off to win by 9 1/2 lengths. The last time Uncle Jake tried graded company, he finished 12th beaten by 42 3/4 lengths in last year's Wood Memorial (G2). He change barns from Brittany Russell to Vaccarezza for his 2024 season, so maybe Vaccarezza figured out what makes the 4-year-old tick. However, Vaccarezza is winless with a 19 percent in-the-money rate in graded races over the last five years, according to Race Lens. Also important to note is that Uncle Jake just raced on May 27, and Vaccarezza is 17 percent with a 50 percent in-the-money clip with runners coming off a 1-7 day layoff. Joel Rosario has the return call. Pass.

Uncle Jake raced on May 27 and may scratch. Carlo Vaccarezza found the key to this 4-year-old Uncle Mo ridgling, and since joining his barn, Uncle Jake reeled off three straight victories against allowance/optional claiming types. However, Joel Rosario tried to rate the free running ridgling, but Uncle Jake was rank and hard held in the first 1/4 mile of his last start, subsequently running out of oats in the stretch while holding his position. The regression was expected since Uncle Jake ran the best race of his career the month before, winning by 9 1/4 lengths and recording a 102 Brisnet rating. Uncle Jake could rebound here but will vie with other speed. Pass.

5. Tapit Trice (3-1)

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Tapit Trice is one that I have developed a love-hate relationship with. After finishing third on debut, the now 4-year-old rattled off four straight victories, including the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Since then, he's gone 4: 0-0-2. Tapit Trice last raced August 26 in the Travers (G1) in which he finished third, beaten by just 3 1/2 lengths. Over the past year, Pletcher has been 18 percent with a 42 percent in the money rate with runners coming off a 6-month plus layoff. After running in five straight grade one races to close out his 3-year-old season, the Blame will be much needed drop in class. Pletcher has also switched from regular rider Luis Saez to Flavien Prat. My heart and my head are at odds here. My heart says the layoff and the drop in class will probably move Tapit Trice up, but my head doesn't trust it. Just to be safe, I would key him underneath.

Last seen finishing third in the Travers (G1), Tapit Trice surfaces at Churchill to kick off his 4-year-old season. It's well known that Tapit's offspring don't do well in route races at Churchill – they don't handle the turns very well. Race Lens stats show that Tapit has two winners from 30 starters at 1 1/8 miles over this dirt course, and 13 have finished second or third. Last year, Tapit Trice had a habit of breaking slowly, was a one-paced, long-striding closer, and had trouble navigating turns. He hated kickback and turned his head to the right when passing rivals. Sometimes, horses outgrow those quirks with age. The Blame Stakes is a starting point for the year, and I don't expect Tapit Trice to be 100 percent cranked. I'm undecided whether he'll hit the board or be an also-ran. I would use him in exotics if making multiple tickets. Exotics.

6. Dreamlike (4-1)

Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Dreamlike has just one win in eight career starts. Last year he managed a close third in the Wood Memorial (G2) as a maiden and a close second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) but was totally outclassed in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) to finish out his 3-year-old year. He made his 4-year-old bow in a high-level allowance race where he lost by a neck to Cagliostro. I don't see a win from this colt, but he's capable of getting up for a minor award as he's only been off the board twice in his career. Use underneath.

The other Pletcher horse, Dreamlike, is a well-bred son of Gun Runner out of Time to Tap, an unraced full sister to 2014's champion 3-year-old filly Untapable, making her also a half to Grade 1-winning turf router Paddy O'Prado. Time to Tap's full sister Red House bore multiple graded winner Red Route One and multiple graded-stakes placed Red Run, who are both also sons of Gun Runner. Red Route One was third in the Oaklawn Handicap behind Skippylongstocking and Highland Falls. So Dreamlike should be coming into his own as a 4-year-old. In his first start off the layoff, Dreamlike was erratic down the stretch. He was late switching leads and wandered down the lane like he was in the last stages of a pub crawl. Despite this, he kept moving forward when he wasn't moving sideways, missed the victory by a head to Cagliostro, and galloped out in front. His 98 Brisnet rating is a good starting point, and Dreamlike has a shot to improve on that effort. Contender.

7. Classic Causeway (30-1)

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Classic Causeway has tried a little bit of everything. He's raced from seven furlongs all the way up to 1 1/2 miles on dirt and turf. The 5-year-old was most recently fifth in the $200,000, 1 1/2-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Overnight Stakes, meaning he was beaten by weaker than he will face here. He's also just 3: 0-0-1 at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Classic Causeway also exits the same race as Uncle Jake from May 27. McPeek doesn't typically run his horses on such a quick turnaround; in fact, he's only done it twice in the last five years. Neither won and one hit the board, per Race Lens. Regular rider Brian Hernandez retains the mount. Pass.

Ashley remarked that Classic Causeway also exits the same race as Uncle Jake from May 27, so it would be surprising to see him here.

I've always liked Classic Causeway, but the 5-year-old has lost a step since his last victory, the Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) in 2022. Since then, he's collected a pair of seconds and thirds, and his Brisnet speed ratings aren't what they were. Classic Causeway is happiest on the lead and can run all day. He is just not very fast. Pass.

8. Last Samurai (20-1)

Trained by Eddie Milligan, Last Samurai enters off five straight off-the-board finishes. His last victory came last March in the Essex Handicap (G3). He's 13: 1-2-2 at the Blame distance and 8: 1-0-2 at Churchill Downs. Additionally, Milligan, Jr. is winless with a 25 percent in-the-money rate in graded stakes over the last five years, per Race Lens. Cristian Torres takes over from Richard Eramia. Pass.

This 6-year-old veteran has seen better days. The last time he had his picture taken was in March 2023. Since switching to Eddie Milligan Jr.'s barn, Last Samurai was beaten 24 lengths in two starts. In his final start of last year, he was eased in the Whitney (G1), finishing 40 lengths behind. This gallant multiple-graded winner has amassed $2,252,364 in his 30-race career. Let him retire from the racing world, have a new career, or become a greeter at Old Friends before risking an injury. Pass.

9. Cagliostro (6-1)

Trained by Cherie DeVaux, Cagliostro enters off a career-best effort. Last out he beat Dreamlike by a neck, earning a 105 Equibase speed figure. The 4-year-old colt was off-the-board in his only previous attempt at 1 1/8-mile, the Oklahoma Derby (G3) to close out his 3-year-old season and is 1: 0-1-0 at Churchill Downs. Jose Ortiz retains the mount. Pass.

Cherie DeVaux added a shiny new set of blinkers and changed Cagliostro's running style in his last race and was rewarded with a focused competitor who held off Dreamlike for the victory. Granted, it was only by a head in an allowance race, but the experiment worked, so we should see improvement in his Blame performance. Upstart's son should handle the 1 1/8 miles. Upstart's progeny include the 1 1/2-mile Temperence Hill Stakes hero Masqueparade, Zandon, a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles, and Trademark, last year's Clark (G2) victor. Cagliostro is out of the Hard Spun mare, A Rosefor Isabelle. Cagliostro kicked off the year with a 96 Brisnet figure, and he can improve on the effort. Contender.

10. Five Star General (30-1)

Trained by Grant Forster, Five Star General is an 8-year-old warrior that I really like. However, 1 1/8-mile is not his best distance; he's more of a miler. In the last five years, Forster is just eight percent with a 33 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes, with his last win coming with Pirate's Punch in 2020, according to Race Lens. It's important to note that Five Star General just raced on May 27, winning an optional claimer over Uncle Jake and Classic Causeway. In the last five years, Forster has never wheeled a runner back off a 1-7 day layoff. Corey Lanerie has the call. Pass.

Five Star General just beat Uncle Jake and Classic Causeway on May 27, so it's unlikely that he'll run here. However, he's still remarkably consistent despite being the old man of the Blame field at 8 years old. However, his only victory at 1 1/8 miles was when he was a young lad of three in the British Columbia Derby (G3) at Hastings. Pass.

11. Trademark (12-1)

Trained by Victoria Oliver, Trademark has put in two dismal performances to begin his 2024 season. He was tenth beaten by 26 1/2 lengths in the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) and seventh beaten by 17 1/4 lengths in the Alysheba (G2). Oliver is just two percent with a 17 percent in-the-money clip in graded stakes over the last five years with her last victory coming with Trademark in last year's Clark Stakes (G2), per Race Lens. Martin Garcia will get the leg up for the first time since last year's Fayette (G2). Pass.

The 5-year-old Trademark needs time to round into form. It took him seven starts to hit the board in 2022 and four starts to hit the board last year, so I don't expect much out of him in the Blame Stakes despite his loving Churchill. Pass.